Tuesday, October 10, 2017

baseball stoopidstats -- 2017 edition, number 3

Last year, I wrote a post about who holds the records for the most home runs in the span of n seasons (for all positive integers n).

As of 2017, none of the records has changed. So the table I presented last year is still valid. I have therefore reproduced it here.

What has changed is that now I'm a little better with Dropbox, so I can let you peruse the file. It's here.

I realize that this is probably a job that would be best performed using Access or some other database program. But I'm more comfortable with spreadsheets, so that's what I used.

That fact, of course, raises the question of how I chose which baseball players to consider. There have been nearly 20,000 players in the history of the major leagues, and it would be a bit time consuming to look in detail at each one's record. If you look at the file I attached above, you'll see that I went through the records of 23 players. How did I pick them? How do I know that I didn;t miss someone who hit more homers in, say, nine years than anyone I did consider?

In answer, I'll explain my methodology. Note that, for data, I relied on baseball-reference.com, which is a great online resource for anyone interested in baseball stats. Conveniently, they have leader lists for every major statistic. And for each of those statistics they have lists of career leaders, season leaders, active leaders, etc. The top of their single-season leader list is shown below. To decide whether to consider a player, I need to see his highest single-season total and his career total. As described below.

Single Season Record
Barry Bonds, of course, is at the top of the single season home run leader list (having hit 73 in 2001. So I looked at his career first, calculating his highest two-season total, his highest three-season total, etc. At this point, his totals are the only candidates I have for each record. And I also know that his highest single-season total is the record for a one-year span.

Two-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a two -year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Barry Bonds' total of 122 home runs (2000-2001) is the highest total I've come across. Bonds averaged 61 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with at least 61 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 122 career homers. Moving down the single season list, the next highest is Mark McGwire, who hit 70 homers in 1998. He also had 583 career homers, so he's a candidate to consider. Examining his career, I see that he hit 135 homers (1998-1999), which is better than Bonds' best. So that's the new candidate for the record. McGwire averaged 67.5 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with at least 68 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 135 career homers. But Bonds and McGwire are the only players to have hit at least 68 homers in a season, so I know that McGwire's two-year best is the record.

Three-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a three-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, McGwire's total of 193 home runs (1997-1999) is the highest total I've come across. McGwire averaged 64.3 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 65 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 193 career homers. Moving down the single-season list, the next highest is Sammy Sosa, who hit 66 homers in 1998. He also had 609 career homers, so he's a candidate to consider. Examining his career, I see that his highest three-year total was 179 (1998-2000), which doesn't beat McGwire's highest. At this point, everyone who had a season with at least 65 homers has been considered, so I know McGwire's three-year best is the record.

Four-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a four-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, McGwire's total of 245 home runs (1996-1999) is the highest total I've come across. McGwire averaged 61.3 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 62 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 245 career homers. At this point, everyone who had a season with at least 62 homers has been considered, so I know McGwire's four-year best is the record.

Five-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a five-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Sosa's total of 292 home runs (1998-2002) is the highest total I've come across. Sosa averaged 58.4 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 59 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 292 career homers. Looking at the single-season homer list, I see three more players with at least 59 homers in a season -- Roger Maris (61 in 1961), Babe Ruth (60 in 1927) and Giancarlo Stanton (59 in 2017). Neither Maris nor Stanton got to 292 career homers, so I am not examining their careers. But Babe Ruth had 714 career homers, so I do examine his career. His highest five-year total was 256 (1926-1930), so he doesn't beat Sosa's highest. So I have confirmed that Sosa's five-year best is the record.

Six-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a six-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Sosa's total of 332 home runs (1998-2003) is the highest total I've come across. Sosa averaged 55.3 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 56 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 332 career homers. Looking at the single-season homer list, I see seven more players with at least 56 homers in a season. Two of them didn't hit at least 332 in their careers, and but five did, and I examine their careers. However, none of them ever hit 332 or more home runs in a six-year span, so I know Sosa's six-year best is the record.

Seven-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a seven-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Sosa's total of 368 home runs (1996-2002, and 1997-2003) is the highest total I've come across. Sosa averaged 52.6 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 53 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 368 career homers. Looking at the single-season homer list, I see five more players with at least 53 homers in a season. Two of them didn't hit at least 368 in their careers, and but three did, and I examine their careers. However, none of them ever hit 368 or more home runs in a seven-year span, so I know Sosa's seven-year best is the record.

Eight-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a eight-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Sosa's total of 408 home runs (1996-2003) is the highest total I've come across. Sosa averaged 51 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 51 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 408 career homers. Looking at the single-season homer list, I see seven more players with at least 51 homers in a season. Four of them didn't hit at least 408 in their careers, and but three did, and I examine their careers. However, none of them ever hit 408 or more home runs in an eight-year span, so I know Sosa's eight-year best is the record.

Nine-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a nine-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Sosa's total of 444 home runs (1995-2003) is the highest total I've come across. Sosa averaged 49.3 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 50 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 444 career homers. Looking at the single-season homer list, I see four more players with at least 50 homers in a season. None of them had at least 444 homers in his career, so I don't examine any of their careers. I know Sosa's nine-year best is the record.

Ten-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for a ten-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Sosa's total of 479 home runs (1995-2004) is the highest total I've come across. Sosa averaged 47.9 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 48 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 479 career homers. Looking at the single-season homer list, I see fifteen more players with at least 48 homers in a season. Ten of them didn't hit at least 479 in their careers, and but five did, and I examine their careers. However, none of them ever hit 479 or more home runs in a ten-year span, so I know Sosa's ten-year best is the record.

Eleven-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for an eleven-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Babe Ruth's total of 516 home runs (1920-1930) is the highest total I've come across. Ruth averaged 46.9 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 47 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 516 career homers. Looking at the single-season homer list, I see twelve more players with at least 47 homers in a season. Nine of them didn't hit at least 516 in their careers, and but three did, and I examine their careers. However, none of them ever hit 516 or more home runs in an eleven-year span, so I know Ruth's eleven-year best is the record.

Twelve-Season Record
Now, on to the question of who holds the record for an twelve-year span (and, how to know whose careers to examine). At this point, Babe Ruth's total of 562 home runs (1920-1931) is the highest total I've come across. Ruth averaged 46.8 homers per season during that span, so if anyone did better, he had to have at least one season with 47 homers. And, of course, he also had to have at least 562 career homers. At this point, everyone with at least 562 career home runs has been considered, so there's nothing left to look at, so I know Ruth's twelve-year best is the record.

Longer-Than-Twelve-Season records
If I continue in this manner, the career total necessary to be considered will only go up, so I know that there's nothing else to look at, and the records as shown in the table above are the records.

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