in which my name races my sister's name to the presidency

With the national prominence of Senator Amy Klobuchar, and her entrance as an A-list candidate in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, I have come to the realization that we are now more likely than not to have a president named Amy (i.e., one who shares my sister's first name) before we have a president named Marc (i.e., one who shares my first name).

For whatever that matters.

If you had asked me when I was a kid, which we'd have first -- a president named Marc or a president named Amy -- I probably would have said Marc. While we knew that women could be president, it never seemed like an imminent possibility. Things are different now. Hillary Clinton almost won in 2016, and there are several women with credible chances of getting the Democratic party nomination next year -- Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand come to mind (aside from Klobuchar), and they're not the only ones. But more to the point, there is actually a serious candidate named Amy running for the nomination. I can't think of any contender named Marc. I guess there's Mark Zuckerberg, but he's not a serious candidate -- and his name is not the same as mine (even though it's pronounced the same*)

If Klobuchar wins the nomination and then wins the general, then that's it. The name Amy beats the name Marc to the presidency. Game over.

If Klobuchar doesn't get the nomination, then she remains a credible candidate for  2024 or 2028 (depending on how 2020 goes), and "Amy" has to remain favored to get to the presidency before "Marc."

But if Klobuchar gets the 2020 nomination and loses? Then she is no longer a credible candidate for the future. So in that event, which name is more likely to get to the white house first?

Short answer: I have no friggin' clue. To figure that out, I'd probably need the following:

• How many boys and girls were born each of those years
• Number of boys named Marc and girls named Amy born each of those years
• Relevant sex-distinct mortality tables
• Some model of the relative likelihood of a male or female being elected
• A probability distribution of age at election
• Some way of projecting these statistics in the future

And that's just to start. To refine the estimate, you'd probably want to have those numbers refined by certain demographic groups -- and estimate prospective likelihoods of members of those demographic groups getting elected. Yeah, I think I'll pass on that project.

*That has long been one of my big bugaboos.