a-rod retires and i get pizza

According to today's paper, Alex Rodriguez will end his career (at least the playing part of it) this Friday. Which means that, barring him having a really good week, I will win two slices of kosher pizza..

A few years ago (maybe seven? eight?) I made the prediction that A-Rod would not get to 700 career home runs. At the time, people were talking about the possibility of him breaking Barry Bonds' career record of 762. But I expressed my doubt because he had had a history of steroid use, and we'd seen how athletes with a history of steroid use can be prone to nagging injuries and/or reduced performance. One example -- Mark McGwire. In 1998 he hit 70 home runs to set a then-record. But he retired at age 38 at the end of 2001, due largely to injuries. And aside from the example, I've read various articles on the subject -- not that I'm claiming to be an expert. IIRC, A-Rod was also starting to show signs of nagging injuries.The other side of the argument was that he was young enough (and there was enough money ion his contract) that he'd keep on plugging away. Surely there were enough seasons left that, even with diminished production, he could get to 700.

And a bet was made. Two bets, actually. I bet two guys at work, each one slice of pizza, that A-Rod would not get to 700 career homers. These are Orthodox Jewish guys, so it has to be kosher pizza. I'm not sure if we specified that in the bet. But it was implicit. And, actuaries that we are, we had all sorts of discussions about the fact that if he made it the payoff would be before his retirement while if he didn't make it the payment would be later (at his retirement). Do we need to adjust for the time value of pizza? Also, what if he retires without making it, payment is made and then he comes out of retirement and makes it? And what if he makes it, payments are made, and then the MLB retroactively purges his accomplishments from the record because of some steroid scandal. We decided that we could worry about crazy scenarios if and when they happen.

So, for a bunch of years I've followed A-Rod's career with a mix of emotions. He looks strong. Then weak. Around 2011 I was looking pretty smart as his seasonal output kept declining. It was only a matter of how fast it would decline. But he did better in 2012! Then came 2013 and his suspension that would run through 2014. Surely this was the death knell for his career. But he came back in 2015 a new man. He hit 33 homers in 2015, ending the season 687 for his career and two years left on his contract. Going into this year, my bet wasn't looking good. As he started the year decently I came to accept that I was going to lose. And I was OK with it. Happy even. I'm generally uncomfortable with the idea of rooting against someone. What's that old Hebrew expression? Don't rejoice in your enemy's downfall? And A-Rod is hardly an enemy. I got to the point that I was looking forward to him getting to 700. And if I have to pay for the pizza party, so be it.

But A-Rod has been slumping, and I guess the feeling is that he won't come out of it. So, with 696 career home runs, he announced that his last game will be on Friday. Unless he hits 4 homers this week, I win. And yet, I am disappointed. I had come to hope that he'd get to 700.

I can't help wondering if he should sit out the rest of this year and rest. After taking a full year off he came back strong. Maybe a few extra months would allow him to do well enough next year. But, of course, they know better than I do.

What actually makes me sad is to see a once-great player go out this way. No victory lap. Just a press conference and a whimper. The steroid use will probably keep him out of the Hall of Fame, and has definitely diminished his popularity.