Tuesday, October 1, 2019

stoopidstats 2019: most homers in an n-year span

The baseball season over. Which means it's time for StoopidStats.

One of the stats (or, I guess, set of stats) I've been tracking for a while now is the set of records for most home runs in a span of N seasons for positive integers N. This year, using a downloadable database, I went back and looked at how these records progressed from year to year. Meaning, I was looking at the records for most home runs in a span of N seasons, as of year Y (for positive integers N and years (Y) starting with 1871.

My final file is here. Sadly, it's not the most transparent -- If I were a whiz with Access, I'd be able to share a good Access database. In the event, I ended up putting together a new file for each year. The final file (linked above) includes tables for each year, as well as a couple of overall tables. And two graphs which are pretty but not really helpful from a data visualization perspective.

In the first graph I'm showing here, each series represents the progression of the record for most home runs in an N-year span for some N. This only goes up to 23 -- for all N>23, the series would be the same as for N=23. The huge increases in these records starting in 1919 represent Babe Ruth's contribution to history. This period followed the more-modest increases by Gavvy Cravath. The next notable changes were in the early and mid 1970's as Hank Aaron set records for spans of length 20 and greater. After Assron, things were again stable for about 20 years. Then the steroid era hit in the 1990's, and lots of the records were broken. That ended with Barry Bonds' retirement after the 2007 season.

These same data can be seen in the second graph. But here each series represents all the records for a given year. There are only series for years in which a new record was set.

Here are some fun facts about these records:
  • There are 23 players who have at one time held at least one of the records. Six of them are in the HAll of Fame. They are listed below in order of their first holding such a record (with Hall of Famers indicated as such):
    • Levi Meyerle
    • Lip Pike
    • Fred Treacey
    • Jim O'Rourke
    • Charley Jones
    • Dan Brouthers (HOF)
    • Harry Stovey
    • Ned Williamson
    • Abner Dalrymple
    • Cap Anson (HOF)
    • Fred Pfeffer
    • Roger Connor (HOF)
    • Jimmy Ryan
    • Bill Joyce
    • Sam Thompson (HOF)
    • Buck Freeman
    • Gavvy Cravath
    • Babe Ruth (HOF)
    • Roger Maris
    • Hank Aaron (HOF)
    • Mark McGwire
    • Barry Bonds
    • Sammy Sosa
  • At the end of the 1871 season, which is the first recognized Major League season, there was a three-way tie for most homers. Meyerle, Pike and Treacey each hit 4. The only other time that there was a three-way tie was at the end of the 1918 season, when Cravath, Stovey and Connor shared the record for most home runs in a nine-year span (with 104). That, interestingly enough, was the last time there was any tie.
  • The following people each at some point held the record for an N year span, and not for an N+1 year span, but did hold it for some X>N
    • Charley Jones
    • Lip Pike
    • Harry Stovey
    • Roger Connor
    • Babe Ruth
    • Hank Aaron
  • As I was finishing this up, I started wondering how things would look if I removed the condition that I look at spans. Who holds the records for most home runs in N (not necesarily consecutive) seasons?  If a number of my reader express interest in seeing such an anlysis* I'll work on it. Thinking it through, I think it will be easier than when I impose the consecutivity condition.
  • In writing this up, I had to resist the urge to pluralize home run as "homes run." That's just one of those little word games I like to play with myself. Problem is, if anyone who doesn't know me sees it, they just assume I'm an idiot.
*I note that zero is a number.

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